{"id":1144,"date":"2024-01-16T01:26:52","date_gmt":"2024-01-16T01:26:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aiecasia.org\/?page_id=1144"},"modified":"2024-01-16T01:50:58","modified_gmt":"2024-01-16T01:50:58","slug":"environment_detail_1","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/aiecasia.org\/?page_id=1144","title":{"rendered":"ENVIRONMENT_DETAIL_1"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\">ENVIRONMENT<\/a><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\"><strong>JANUARY 15, 202<\/strong>4<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">To Prevent Climate Chaos, We May Have to Forsake Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li>Business as usual doesn\u2019t seem to be working.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>BOB BERWYN<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"990\" height=\"556\" src=\"http:\/\/aiecasia.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/20231116_zaf_i90_741.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1165\" style=\"width:760px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/aiecasia.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/20231116_zaf_i90_741.webp 990w, https:\/\/aiecasia.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/20231116_zaf_i90_741-300x168.webp 300w, https:\/\/aiecasia.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/20231116_zaf_i90_741-768x431.webp 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 990px) 100vw, 990px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><strong>Imago\/Zuma<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p><strong>With Earth\u2019s average\u00a0<\/strong>annual temperature speeding toward\u00a01.5 degrees Celsius\u00a0faster than expected and\u00a0global climate policy on a treadmill, an increasing number of researchers say it\u2019s time to consider a \u201crestorative pathway\u201d to avoid the worst ecological and social outcomes of global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a recent\u00a0study\u00a0in\u00a0<em>Environmental Research Letters<\/em>, an international team of scientists wrote that reaching global goals could require focusing on ways to drive rapid changes in the way people live, move, work and eat; on making sure that global wealth is distributed more equitably; and on restoring and protecting biodiversity and ecosystems like forests, oceans, fields and rivers that are critical to removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The restorative approach should be considered soon because the pace of climate impacts to ecosystems and communities is speeding up, the authors said. Climate extremes are outpacing decades of efforts to cap global warming with tools like carbon trading and offsets. Those are hallmarks of the green growth path mapped out by various United Nations-sponsored climate pacts like the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, as well other ancillary agreements. They all aim to keep growing the global economy while reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050\u2014partly based on assuming that large quantities of carbon dioxide will be directly removed from the air and stored by giant machines by then.&nbsp;\u201cA lot of people think 1.5 is dead already, that we have to realistically aim for staying below 2C.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Many countries, like France, Sweden and the United States, have reduced emissions while continuing to grow their economies\u2014called decoupling\u2014over the last few decades, but research shows it\u2019s not happening nearly fast enough to cap global warming.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Total global emissions, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and the global average temperature all climbed to record highs during the past 30 years, amounting to about half the total greenhouse gas accumulations in the atmosphere since the start of the industrial age.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s almost too late. We need to get cracking with this,\u201d said\u00a0Manfred Lenzen, a sustainability researcher at the University of Sydney and co-author of the new paper.\u00a0 \u201cA lot of people think 1.5 is dead already, that we have to realistically aim for staying below 2C,\u201d he said, adding that green growth\u2014decoupling emissions from economic expansion\u2014might have worked if the world had taken it seriously in 2000.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Starting then, it would have taken only a 2 percent annual reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to reach net zero by 2050; starting now means cutting global emissions by 7 percent a year, but the green growth approach is not cutting emissions by anywhere near the required rate, he said. And, particularly as outlined in the policy guiding reports from\u00a0International Panel on Climate Change, it relies on deployment of unproven technologies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Carbon-removal technology, for example, is still decades away from deployment at a scale that would match the IPCC\u2019s pathways to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, as per the Paris Climate Agreement, said Lenzen.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lenzen also co-authored a\u00a02021 paper\u00a0describing a \u201cdegrowth\u201d alternative to the existing IPCC options, based on the idea of\u00a0shrinking economies in rich countries in a controlled way\u00a0by reducing production and consumption, in order to protect natural resources and reduce environmental damage while improving well-being.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>A\u00a02023 study\u00a0in<\/strong>\u00a0<em>The Lancet Planetary Health<\/em>\u00a0journal\u00a0showed that, even in countries with falling emissions and growing economies, emissions are not declining at rates compliant with the Paris Agreement. At the current rates, it would take those countries on average more than 220 years to reduce their emissions by 95 percent, the goal targeted for 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The authors of that study wrote that those decoupling rates in high-income countries \u201ccannot legitimately be considered green\u2026To achieve Paris-compliant emission reductions, high-income countries will need to pursue post-growth demand-reduction strategies, reorienting the economy towards sufficiency, equity, and human wellbeing, while also accelerating technological change and efficiency improvements.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another 2023 paper in\u00a0<em>Nature<\/em>\u00a0described widespread scientific skepticism, especially in high-income countries, about the existing strain of tech-driven green growth, and also called for exploring \u201cpost-growth perspectives, including [growth-neutral] and degrowth strategies, to cultivate a more comprehensive discourse on sustainable development strategies.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In any case, Lenzen added, \u201cWe\u2019re not giving technology the chance to catch up with consumption, and that has been the dynamics over the past decade,\u201d he said, describing a decades-long trend that is now leading researchers to look at alternative economics built on ecological sustainability and social justice.\u201cClimate change is a symptom of the broader problem of ecological overshoot, the overexploitation of the Earth.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The new paper doesn\u2019t specifically use the term \u201cdegrowth,\u201d but shares common themes, like focusing on human wellbeing and reduction of inequality. That \u201copens the possibility of talking about alternative sustainability scenarios without being too provocative about it,\u201d said\u00a0Lorenz Key\u00dfer, a degrowth researcher at the University of Lausanne. That could make it more palatable to a wider audience, he added, including to the community of scientists who build the complex climate models that integrate human behavior with climate physics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cCompared to their pathway, I think degrowth thinking is more explicit in terms of the proposed changes,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd it\u2019s more openly \u2018radical\u2019 in the sense of being more pessimistic about green growth and decoupling, and in favor of a more transformative approach, which also includes ruptures and conflict.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But research on degrowth, and similar related concepts like circular economies, or donut economics, is growing, and the European Parliament last year tasked its research service\u00a0to study \u201cbeyond growth\u201d alternatives, including a hard look to determine whether the\u00a0European Union Green Deal\u00a0is really sustainable.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Developing country leaders also recently spelled out steps that could have a huge cumulative impact and help protect vulnerable countries from climate impacts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Speaking at COP28 in the context of global equity in climate financing,\u00a0Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley\u00a0said a global financial services tax of 0.1 percent could raise $420 billion, and a 5 percent tax on oil and gas profits would raise another $200 billion, while a 1 percent tax on the value of shipping would raise $70 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And there would have to be some new global compact that \u201callows countries to recognize that they cannot only act in their own deliberate interest, but they have to also act in the interest of the preservation of global public goods,\u201d Mottley said.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe happen to be talking about climate,\u201d she added. \u201cBut we could easily be talking about pandemics and Big Pharma. We could easily be talking about the digital divide and big tech.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oregon State University ecologist<\/strong>\u00a0William Ripple, co-author of the new paper, said the findings show that their restorative pathway should be included in climate models along with the five \u201cshared socioeconomic pathways,\u201d or SSPs, that are used by the UN\u2019s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Current emissions trends, societal denial and lack of political will make their scenario a tough sell, but he said its merits can\u2019t be honestly debated if it\u2019s not included as an option for policy makers.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Their findings suggest a path of \u201cradical incrementalism,\u201d with small short-term steps to achieve big changes, like reducing the need to mine for metals or log forests to levels that don\u2019t threaten biodiversity and ecosystem integrity, with per capita GDP stabilizing over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cEnding fossil fuel subsidies and public lands fossil fuel extraction projects would be great first steps for the US and other developed countries, where applicable,\u201d he said. \u201cThese actions would be low-hanging fruit and a good start in the process of radical incrementalism.\u201d\u201cBusiness as usual isn\u2019t working and continued economic growth in wealthy countries isn\u2019t sustainable.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Directly phasing out fossil fuel use is also critical, Ripple added. \u201cAn important step in this direction would be the adoption of a global coal elimination treaty since the coal industry has extremely harmful impacts on the climate and human health.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the paper, the team compiled a 500-year dataset for several key global climate indicators to measure humanity\u2019s consumption of resources over the period.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe results show a great acceleration of resource use and impacts since about 1850,\u201d he said. \u201cThis illustrates that climate change is a symptom of the broader problem of ecological overshoot, the overexploitation of the Earth, which is driving several environmental crises.\u201d The restorative pathway was designed to tackle this underlying issue, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAs our current predicament makes clear, business-as-usual isn\u2019t working and continued economic growth in wealthy countries isn\u2019t sustainable,\u201d Ripple said. \u201cThis motivated us to call for a shift toward post-growth economics where quality of life and societal wellbeing are the main priority.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The key to curbing ecological overshoot means greatly reducing overconsumption and waste, especially by the wealthy, and implementing ecological economics that would focus on social justice rather than continued growth, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the global measures they used dating back to 1820 shows the top 10 percent of the world\u2019s wealthiest have consistently received at least 50 percent of all income, illustrating global economic inequality over the long term.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe magnitude of this inequality,\u201d he said, \u201cprovides further evidence that we need a dramatic change. We face multiple serious and interrelated social and environmental crises. We need economic policies that guide humanity toward more equitable resource use patterns.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>To Prevent Climate Chaos, We May Have to Forsake Economic Growth With Earth\u2019s average\u00a0annual temperature speeding toward\u00a01.5 degrees Celsius\u00a0faster than expected and\u00a0global climate policy on a treadmill, an increasing number of researchers say it\u2019s time to consider a \u201crestorative pathway\u201d to avoid the worst ecological and social outcomes of global warming. In a recent\u00a0study\u00a0in\u00a0Environmental Research&hellip;&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/aiecasia.org\/?page_id=1144\" class=\"\" rel=\"bookmark\">Read More &raquo;<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">ENVIRONMENT_DETAIL_1<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":523,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"on","_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"_ti_tpc_template_sync":false,"_ti_tpc_template_id":"","footnotes":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/aiecasia.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1144"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/aiecasia.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/aiecasia.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aiecasia.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aiecasia.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1144"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/aiecasia.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1144\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1172,"href":"https:\/\/aiecasia.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1144\/revisions\/1172"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aiecasia.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/523"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/aiecasia.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1144"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}